Super Mario is still a young LEGO theme, but it already has enough history to show a clear split between average performers and standout niches. Across 176 sets released from 2020 through 2026, the theme has produced an average yearly growth rate of 7.3%, with collectors giving it a strong 4.7 average rating. That headline number is decent, but the more interesting story is where the gains have actually come from: small accessory packs, select character releases, and a handful of display-oriented flagship sets have done much better than the theme’s larger play-focused core products.
Theme overview
Super Mario arrived in 2020 with a very different model from most licensed LEGO themes. Instead of relying mainly on traditional minifigure playsets, it mixed digital interactivity, starter-course dependency, collectible character packs, power-up suits, and a few premium display pieces aimed at older Nintendo fans. That structure matters for investors, because it created several distinct product types inside one theme, and they have not performed the same way.
The broad theme metrics are respectable. A 7.3% average yearly growth rate across 176 sets is solid for a theme that is still relatively close to retail life. The average rating of 4.7 also tells you demand is real, even if resale performance has been uneven. With 153 retired sets and 86 sets marked as retiring soon, Super Mario is already moving into the phase where secondary-market patterns become easier to read.
| Total Sets |
176 |
| Retired Sets |
153 |
| Retiring Soon |
86 |
| Average Yearly Growth |
7.3% |
| Average Rating |
4.7 |
| First Year |
2020 |
| Latest Year |
2026 |
The data points to a theme with strong brand power but inconsistent aftermarket behavior. Nintendo is one of the most recognizable entertainment brands in the world, yet the LEGO Super Mario line did not turn every set into a post-retirement winner. In practice, buyers have rewarded products that feel scarce, self-contained, or nostalgic. They have been less enthusiastic about sets that depend on the interactive system, overlap with many similar releases, or were easy to find at discount.
Top performers
The top 10 appreciation leaders make one pattern obvious right away: small-format items dominate. Power-Up Packs and character products have delivered the biggest premiums, while only a few larger sets have broken into the top tier. That tells you scarcity and completionist demand have mattered more than raw piece count.
Why the small packs have been so strong
The biggest surprise in Super Mario is how often the smallest products have produced the largest percentage gains. Fire Mario Power-Up Pack started at just $9.99 and now sits at $62.84, a 529.0% premium. Cat Mario Power-Up Pack is close behind, moving from $9.99 to $58.10, a 481.6% premium. Propeller Mario Power-Up Pack went from $9.99 to $46.95, and Tanooki Mario Power-Up Pack climbed from $9.99 to $45.00.
These are tiny sets. Fire Mario has 11 pieces, Cat Mario has 11 pieces, Propeller Mario has 13 pieces, and Tanooki Mario has 13 pieces. None include minifigures. On a pure build-value basis, they are weak products. On a collector-demand basis, they have been excellent. That difference is the key to understanding Super Mario as a theme.
Power-Up Packs were easy to ignore at retail because they looked like accessories rather than full sets. After retirement, that same trait turned into an advantage. They are cheap to store, easy to complete as a subtheme, and tied directly to recognizable in-game transformations. Completionists do not need to justify a large purchase to add one missing suit, but once supply dries up, even a small item can move fast. That is exactly what the data shows.
There is also a scarcity effect at work. Small impulse-buy products often get opened, discarded, or separated from packaging. Sealed examples become harder to find than many larger boxed sets. In a theme built around modular expansion, the accessory pieces that seemed optional at launch can become the missing links collectors want later.
Luigi’s Mansion is more than a side branch
Luigi's Mansion Lab and Poltergust is one of the most interesting winners in the whole theme because it breaks the “tiny pack” pattern while still sharing some of the same demand drivers. Released in 2022 at $29.99, it now has an estimated value of $117.17, good for a 290.7% premium and a 38.4% yearly price change. Its projected two-year price is $137.99.
For a 179-piece expansion set with 2 minifigures, those numbers are unusually strong. The obvious reason is subject matter. Luigi’s Mansion has its own fan base inside the wider Mario audience, and it feels more distinct than another generic course add-on. The set is also more self-contained in identity than many expansion products. Buyers are not just purchasing platform pieces, they are purchasing a specific scene and a specific Nintendo concept.
This matters because one of the weaknesses of the Super Mario theme has been product sameness. A lot of expansion sets blur together on the shelf and on the secondary market. Luigi’s Mansion products do not. They read as themed collectibles first, gameplay modules second. That distinction seems to support stronger resale.
The flagship exception: Nintendo Entertainment System
Nintendo Entertainment System proves there is another profitable lane in this theme: adult-targeted nostalgia. It retailed for $269.99 and now sits at $421.46, a 56.1% premium, with a 26.4% yearly price change and a projected two-year price of $467.29. Those are not the eye-popping percentage gains of the Power-Up Packs, but on absolute dollars this is one of the strongest performers in Super Mario.
The set has 2,646 pieces, 1 minifigure, and a 4.80 rating. More importantly, it appeals to a different buyer than the interactive play sets. This is a display piece with broad Nintendo recognition, and it does not depend on owning the whole digital course ecosystem to make sense. A collector who never bought a single starter course can still want the NES.
That independence is a major theme-wide separator. The best larger Super Mario sets tend to work as standalone collectibles. The weaker larger sets tend to depend on the rest of the line.
Character scarcity still matters
Red Yoshi is another strong signal. At $5.99 retail and $25.00 current value, it has gained 317.4%, with a 30.4% yearly price change and a projected two-year price of $31.28. Character packs have a built-in chase element, and Yoshi variants have wide appeal beyond hardcore LEGO buyers. That mix of recognizable character, low original price, and collectible-pack format has worked well in Super Mario.
Box of 4 Bundle Pack also made the top 10 with a current value of $45.99 on a $19.99 retail price, a 130.1% premium. Bundle products can perform well when they simplify completion. Instead of hunting individual packs, buyers get a cleaner path to filling gaps in a series. In a theme full of collectibles, convenience itself can carry value.
What the winners have in common
The top performers fall into two camps. The first is small collectible products, especially Power-Up Packs and character-related items. The second is premium nostalgia-driven display sets that reach beyond the core interactive audience. Both camps share one trait: they are easy to explain in one sentence.
Fire Mario is a famous suit. Cat Mario is a famous suit. Red Yoshi is a known character variant. The NES is an iconic Nintendo object. Luigi’s Mansion is a distinct game identity. By contrast, many middle-of-the-road expansion sets need more context, more system knowledge, and more companion products. In the aftermarket, simple identity has real value.
Underperformers
The weakest sets in Super Mario show the other side of the theme. These are mostly larger play-focused products tied closely to the interactive course system, and several are still trading below retail.
The pattern is fairly consistent. These sets are larger than the top-performing accessory items, but they are not premium display icons like the NES. They sit in the middle, where Super Mario has had the hardest time holding value.
Battle with Roy at Peach's Castle is the weakest of the group, with a current estimated price of $54.70 against a $64.99 retail price, a -15.8% premium and a -47.4% yearly price change. That kind of drop suggests the market has not yet found a strong collector case for it. The set name includes recognizable characters and a castle location, but it is still framed as an expansion set, which likely narrows the buyer pool.
Soda Jungle Maker Set at $51.12 versus $54.99 retail is another example of the problem with system-building products. Maker sets offer flexibility for play, but flexibility is not always a resale advantage. Collectors often pay more for a specific scene, character, or nostalgic reference than for a box of interchangeable course parts.
The Donkey Kong releases are especially notable because the source material is strong. Diddy Kong's Mine Cart Ride Expansion Set has fallen to $90.00 from a $109.99 retail price, and Donkey Kong's Tree House is at $51.78 from $59.99. In theory, Donkey Kong should have been a natural fit for aftermarket demand. In practice, the “expansion set” framing still seems to have limited performance. Buyers may like the characters, but they have not treated these sets as must-have collectibles yet.
The most instructive underperformer is Adventures with Mario. This was the original starter course, the entry point for the whole theme, and it still sits below retail at $51.95 versus $59.99. That is a -13.4% premium. Usually, first-wave flagship products in major licensed themes get some historical lift. Here, the opposite happened.
Why? Because starter sets are functional products first. They were produced in large quantities, and their value depends heavily on the digital play system. Once newer starter options and broader theme expansion arrived, the original course lost some of its uniqueness. It remains historically significant, but the market has not rewarded it like a classic first-edition collectible.
If there is one lesson in the underperformers, it is this: broad brand recognition alone has not been enough. Even with Mario and Donkey Kong attached, sets that feel replaceable inside the course-building system have had trouble keeping pace.
Sets to watch
Super Mario has a large retiring-soon pipeline, and the five sets listed here show the theme’s split personality very clearly. Some already trade well above retail. Others still have a gap between current value and projected value that suggests the market may be waiting for full retirement and tighter supply.
Nintendo nostalgia remains the strongest lane
Nintendo Entertainment System is already the clearest retiring-soon leader. At $421.46 on a $269.99 retail price, it has already proven demand, and the projected two-year price of $467.29 suggests continued strength. This is the kind of set that benefits from crossing theme boundaries. It appeals to LEGO collectors, Nintendo fans, retro gaming fans, and display-focused adult buyers. That is a much broader audience than most Super Mario expansion sets can reach.
The Mighty Bowser fits the same general pattern. It retailed for $269.99, has a current estimated price of $351.17, and a projected two-year price of $400.75. Bowser is one of the most recognizable characters in the franchise, and this set is character sculpture more than gameplay module. That matters. The market has generally favored Super Mario sets that can stand on their own shelf without explanation.
Super Mario 64 Question Mark Block also looks like part of this nostalgia/display tier. It is at $266.47 on a $199.99 retail price, with a projected two-year price of $310.89. The Mario 64 connection gives it a specific generational pull that many standard play sets do not have. Like the NES, it taps into memory and iconography rather than course-building utility.
Princess Peach’s Castle is the most interesting swing case
Princess Peach's Castle is the set in this group that deserves the closest attention. Its current estimated price is $102.91, below its $129.99 retail price, but its projected two-year price is $225.74. That is a very large spread between where it is now and where the data projects it could be in two years.
This kind of profile usually means the market sees stronger long-term relevance than current resale activity suggests. The castle is one of the most recognizable locations in Mario, and that gives it more identity than a generic obstacle-course set. At the same time, it is still part of the interactive line, which may be keeping present demand muted. If the set starts to be viewed more as a definitive Peach display/play hybrid after retirement, its trajectory could look very different from its current discount to retail.
It is not a low-risk profile, because the current price is still weak. But among retiring-soon Super Mario sets, it has one of the clearest cases where theme iconography could matter more after supply tightens.
Sealed character product still has room
Sealed Box has moved from $99.99 retail to $183.87, with a projected two-year price of $216.87. This lines up with the broader pattern seen in Red Yoshi and the Box of 4 Bundle Pack. Character-pack products benefit from completionist demand and the friction of blind packaging. A sealed format removes uncertainty, and that convenience can command a premium.
For Super Mario, this is one of the cleaner subcategories to watch. The theme has shown that collectible character distribution can create stronger aftermarket behavior than many of the standard course expansions.
Investment thesis
Super Mario is not a uniform investment theme. Treating it like one would miss the main lesson in the data. This is a theme where format matters more than brand alone.
The average yearly growth rate of 7.3% across 176 sets is respectable, but the spread between winners and losers is wide. The best performers are not random. They cluster around three traits: low original price with completionist appeal, strong standalone identity, and direct nostalgia for classic Nintendo imagery. The worst performers tend to be mid-sized interactive play sets that rely on the broader course system and do not feel unique enough once retired.
That makes Super Mario more selective than many licensed LEGO themes. In Star Wars or modular-style categories, larger flagship products often carry the theme. Here, some of the strongest percentage returns came from items that looked almost disposable at launch, like Fire Mario Power-Up Pack at $62.84 from a $9.99 retail price or Cat Mario Power-Up Pack at $58.10 from $9.99. At the same time, the original entry point to the theme, Adventures with Mario, sits below retail at $51.95 on a $59.99 launch price. That contrast tells you exactly how the market thinks about this line.
Collectors who care most about Super Mario as an investment category are likely to fall into two groups. The first is the niche-focused buyer who understands the collectible sublines, especially Power-Up Packs and character products. The second is the adult Nintendo collector who wants display pieces with broad cultural recognition, such as Nintendo Entertainment System, The Mighty Bowser, and Super Mario 64 Question Mark Block. Those are the parts of the theme where the data is strongest and the buyer base looks widest.
The weaker area is the middle. Expansion sets, maker sets, and system-dependent play products have not shown the same consistency. Some can still work, especially when tied to a distinct Nintendo sub-brand like Luigi’s Mansion, but the category as a whole has been less reliable. Luigi's Mansion Lab and Poltergust is strong because it feels like a collectible scene with a clear identity, not because it is an expansion set.
If you want one sentence that sums up Super Mario’s trajectory, it is this: the theme has rewarded products that feel like Nintendo collectibles and discounted products that feel like LEGO game components. That distinction is the most useful lens for reading both the retired catalog and the retiring-soon pipeline.
The data does not say Super Mario is weak. It says the theme is selective, and the selectivity is easy to map. When a set captures a famous power-up, a chase character, or a piece of Nintendo history, the aftermarket has responded. When a set looks interchangeable with the rest of the course-building system, buyers have been much less willing to pay up. For anyone tracking this theme, that is the concrete point that matters most.
Data as of April 9, 2026.
Based on historical market data from BrickEconomy's pricing models. Past performance does not guarantee future appreciation. Prices reflect estimated secondary market values and may vary by condition and seller.